Variational Bayesian inference for network autoregression models

نویسندگان

چکیده

We develop a variational Bayesian (VB) approach for estimating large-scale dynamic network models in the autoregression framework. The VB allows automatic identification of structure such model and obtains direct approximation posterior density. Compared to Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC)-based sampling approaches, achieves enhanced computational efficiency without sacrificing estimation accuracy. In real data analysis scenario day-ahead natural gas flow prediction German transmission with 51 nodes between October 2013 September 2015, delivers promising forecasting accuracy along clearly detected structures terms dependence.

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ژورنال

عنوان ژورنال: Computational Statistics & Data Analysis

سال: 2022

ISSN: ['0167-9473', '1872-7352']

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.csda.2021.107406